Self-Replicating Robots – Prediction – Failure or Success?

After more in-depth study of this subject overall, I’m more inclined to say this is still a debate.

Scientists say this technology is definitely soon to be reality. Science fiction gurus say this technology is dangerous, will wipe out mankind and the self-replicating robots take over the planet.

The history of the subject is well grounded and has been thoroughly studied over the last several decades. Here is a short overview leading up to a study by NASA/ASEE in 1980:

The study was sponsored jointly by NASA, through the Office of Aeronautics and Space Technology (OAST) and the Office of University Affairs, and by the American Society for Engineering Education (ASEE) as part of their continuing program of summer study faculty fellowships. Co-hosts for the study were the NASA-Ames Research Center and the University of Santa Clara, where the study was carried out. Project co-directors were James E. Long of the Jet Propulsion Laboratory and Timothy J. Healy of the University of Santa Clara.

Self – replication Definition
Kemeny (1955) said, "If [by "reproduction'] we mean the creation of an object like the original out of nothing, then no machine can reproduce - but neither can a human being....The characteristic feature of the reproduction of life is that the living organism can create a new organism like itself out of inert matter surrounding it."

The Hungarian-American mathematician John von Neumann (1966), set for himself the goal of showing what the logical organization of a self-reproducing machine might be. He envisioned a variety of self-replicating machine models including the (a) kinematic machine, (b) cellular machine, (c) neuron type machine, (d) continuous machine, and (e) probabilistic machine.

NASA/ASEE summer study of 1980 – Advanced Automation for Space Missions
A study was conducted to determine the feasibility of designing and constructing an autonomous lunar manufacturing facility with the ability to self-replicate.

The research teams examined two main concepts for self-replication covering both extremes ranging from very simple to very complex.

Simple Design:
Consider a long row of industrial robots side by side, The first working robot, its fuse already in place, seeks to "reproduce" itself from a "substrate" of dormant machines. It accomplishes this by reaching onto a nearby conveyor belt, picking up a passing fuse part, and plugging it into the neighboring robot. The adjacent machine now begins to function as an exact duplicate, so it can be said that in some sense the first machine has reproduced itself.

Before the reproductive act there was no second working robot; afterwards, one exists.

Complex Design:
A self-replicating system could possess a reproductive behavior so complex and complete that it might produce a copy of itself almost from complete chaos - say, a plasma containing equal concentrations of all isotopes. In this case the machine reproduction is essentially complete - given sufficient energy, the system can make copies of itself in any arbitrary environment even if that environment contains virtually no information relevant to replication.

The NASA/ASEE research team reached the following major conclusions regarding the feasibility of self-replicating machine systems in 1980:

• The basic concept of physical machine systems capable of self-replication appears credible both from a theoretical and a practical engineering standpoint.
• It is reasonable to begin designing replicating systems based on current knowledge and state-of-the-art technology, but final design definition will require significant further research.
• Complete systems closure is achievable in principle, though partial closure may be more feasible from an economic and pragmatic engineering standpoint in the near term.
• It is feasible to begin immediate work on the development of a simple demonstration SRS on a laboratory scale, with phased steps to more sophisticated levels as the technology is proven and matures.

References:
Asimov, Isaac: I, Robot. Doubleday and Company, N.Y., 1950.

Kemeny, John G.: Man Viewed as a Machine. Scientific American, vol.192, 1955, pp.58-67.

Von Neumann, John: Probabilistic Logics and the Synthesis of Reliable Organisms from Unreliable Components. In Automata Studies, C. E. Shannon, J. McCarthy, eds., Princeton Univ. Press, Princeton, N.J., 1956, pp. 43-98. Also in Collected Works, vol. 5, pp. 329-378.

Von Neumann, John: Theory of Self-Reproducing Automata. Edited and completed by A. W. Burks. University of Illinois Press, Urbana, Illinois, 1966.